How Bad Is The Economy?

How Bad Is The Economy? To answer that question,one has to look at the question from at least two different aspects. The first aspect is: Do we want to believe what we are told, or what we see. The second aspect has to do with local economy and how the local economy might differ from the larger regional and/or national economy.

In my opinion, too many people believe what they are told. Media, politicians and others who have vested interest like to put their own spin on the facts. There are also many people stating opinions that are based on feelings that are not supported by fact. Personally, I will always believe what I see and experience first hand. As a small business owner, I watch what people buy. By watching the buying habits of consumers, I am able to determine how strong or weak the economy is.

When someone tells me that the economy is bad, I often ask what they base that opinion on. Often, the answer is John Doe, the local newscaster or Governor Smith reported it on the news. By doing a little research, one can determine the source of Newscaster Doe's or Governor Smith's statement and determine if their might be vested interests. Another typical response to my question is "It just is." The "It just is" reply is either an emotional response or totally uninformed response.

The products I sell typically fall into three categories; consumer products that most people use regularly, fishing tackle/equipment, collectibles and other non-essential items. In a down economy, I expect the consumer items to be my best sellers; and, the collectibles and other non-essential items to be the slow sellers. The fishing tackle/equipment typically sells equally well in up or down economic cycles. As I analyze my sales over the last 18-24 months, my collectibles and other non-essential item sales are booming. That leads me to believe that the economy is no where as bad as the Politicians and local news pundits want me to believe. In contrast, the 18-24 months following 9/11, my consumer (essential) products were by far my best sellers. Based on my experience I would have to say the economy following 9/11 was in a lot worse condition than it is today.

Where is the economy headed? We are being told by the media pundits and politicians that the economy is slowly turning around and getting stronger. From a historical perspective, I would have to believe that the economy will get worse, perhaps much worse before it turns around. One needs to look back on history to the policies implemented by Carter/Reagan & Hoover/Roosevelt administrations and compare them to the policies being implemented by the current administration to get a picture of what impact the current policies might have on current and future economic state.